The results of the Scottish
independence referendum are in, and the answer is a resounding "no."
The referendum asked only a
single question: Should Scotland become an independent country? Scottish voters
have decided, by a large margin, that it should not. After all of the ballots
were counted, "no" had taken 55.3% of the vote, and "yes"
only 44.7%.
Alex Salmond, the First
Minister of Scotland and leader of the independence campaign, conceded defeat,
and called on "all of Scotland to follow suit in accepting the democratic
verdict of the people of Scotland."
Heading into Thursday's vote,
the polls had been too close to call. Most suggested a small edge for the
"No" campaign, but by narrow enough margins — and with enough
questions about whether the surveys were representative — that the world was
left in doubt about what the final result would be. Now we know: Scotland will
not become independent after all.
Why Scotland rejected independence
There are a few facts that
are key to understanding the referendum's failure. First, this is not a huge
surprise. The pro-independence campaign has never been able to show that it had
the support of a majority of Scots. Heading into the referendum campaign,
independence trailed in the polls by more than a 20-point margin. Although it
made up significant ground in the weeks preceding the vote, a "yes" result was always going to
be a long shot.
Second, financial markets
reacted negatively to polls showing the pro-independence campaign gaining
ground, which may have spooked undecided voters. The value of the pound
plummeted on September 8, after a Yougov poll showed a narrow margin in favor
of independence. Stocks in Scottish companies also fell on that news, with the
Royal Bank of Scotland, Standard Life, and the SSE utility company each falling
more than 2 percent, and the Lloyds banking group falling more than 3 percent.
That volatility may have convinced some voters that independence was too
financially risky.
The unsuccessful case for independence
The independence referendum
had its roots in political differences between Scotland and the rest of the UK.
Scotland is more liberal than the relatively conservative, but wealthy and
populous, south of England. Those differences have led Scottish leaders to push
for more independence, in order to pursue a more liberal political agenda.
But even though the
independence referendum wasn't about freeing Scotland from oppression, national
pride still played a role in the campaign. The Yes campaign presented a vote
for independence as a way to show pride in Scotland and belief in its ability to
thrive on its own - a position whose sunny optimism continued to win over
voters until the very last minute. Scottish tennis champion Andy Murray, for
instance, tweeted Thursday that he had just voted for independence after
becoming disenchanted with the "negativity" of the anti-independence
campaign.
However, promises by the
leaders of the three major UK parties to grant Scotland greater autonomy in the
event of a "no" vote — the so-called "devo-max" option —
may also have persuaded some undecided voters that full independence wasn't
necessary. Right now, the Scottish parliament already has the right to set and
administer Scottish policies in a number of areas, such as health care and
education, but others are "reserved" to the UK parliament at
Westminster. Under devo-max, the Scottish parliament would be given control
over most of the reserved matters, with just a few exceptions, such as those
that involve foreign policy or national defense.
What's next
Although the UK won't lose
Scotland entirely, that doesn't mean that the status quo is going to prevail.
The thorny question of how (or whether) to implement "devo-max" still
remains.
As Vox's Matt Yglesias
explained here, devolution is already a point of contention in UK politics,
because England doesn't have its own parliament, while Scotland, Wales, and
Northern Ireland do. English policy is set by the UK-wide parliament at
Westminster. That means that Scottish MPs get to vote on matters of English
policy, but English MPs don't get to vote on matters that have been devolved to
Scotland. (This debate is known as the West Lothian question — named after an
area of Scotland.)
That system is generally seen
as benefiting the Labour party. Unsurprisingly, that makes it particularly
unpopular with the Conservatives. Already, some Conservative MPs have said that
they would demand that the West Lothian question be resolved before further
devolution is granted. David Nuttall, MP for Bury North, which is near
Manchester in the North of England, told the Financial Times, "You cannot
have devolution and then say Scottish MPs will still be voting on matters that
do not affect Scotland. We will need to draw up new rules on this as part of
the settlement. There is a group of us that will push for that."
Regardless of how the
devo-max debate goes, however, there probably won't be another independence
vote. Scottish National Party leader Alex Salmond has said that the vote was a
"once in a lifetime" decision and that he would not pursue another
one if independence failed to gain majority support.
